would release billions of dollars as outbreaks emerge, hopefully allowing responders to head off. Maybe there are ten thousand of them. So its not surprising that the error persists. Clearly they still are not doing Outside View right. This brighter light box cured Briennes depression when the conventional treatment had failed.
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Eliezer wasnt alone in his prediction he says that Japanese stocks were priced in ways that suggested most investors realized the Banks policies were bad. They reason: a) on average, we cant all be more meta-rational than average; and b) you cant trust the reasoning you use to think youre more meta-rational than average. And the purpose of the lending is completely irrelevant.
If it didnt, some entrepreneur would wander through, see that they could get really rich by opening a Thai restaurant, and do that. The problem for banks is that the debt they owe to their customers as a consequence of lending is short-term and highly liquid, whereas the debt their customers owe to them as a consequence of lending is long-term and illiquid. The Outside View is when you notice that you feel like youre right, but most people in the same situation as you are wrong. Prior to the financial crisis, banks thought they had solved this problem, since securitising mortgages is another form of liquidity transformation. As for violent conflicts, rather than waiting until the shooting has stopped and painstakingly preparing a post-conflict assessment as the bank has done in the past Kim wants to risk more capital in insecure zones. And the best part of Uber for drivers is that theres almost always a passenger within a few minute of you. So this doesnt break the fundamental symmetry of the situation. Suppose our central bank decides to do "helicopter money which is a simple transfer of newly-created funds to the private sector. Its not like anyone who did produce this public good would get paid more than they could have made as a Google programmer.) But even if the argument is still missing some pieces, you can see the general shape of this style of analysis. Bank capital is "own funds" - shareholders' equity, retained earnings, debt convertible to equity.
That means maybe passengers will get a driverwithin an hourif theyre lucky? Inadequate Equilibria is a great book, but it raises more questions than it answers. Then when he predicts that Googles price will double next week, hell use his own fortune, or the fortune of the hedge fund that employs him, to throw as much money into Google as the opportunity warrants. If he keeps his job, Kim wants to show that the World Bank can serve as a link between great powers and small ones, between economics and aid work retaining its influence as old rules and boundaries are erased and new ones are scribbled into.
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